Tying the record high of 67 degrees on Monday, Jan. 30 isn’t the usual forecast, but this winter season has been full of warm weather.
With little precipitation mixed with warm air, Ed Shouse, geology science teacher, still predicts there may be few snow days.
“I predicted a mild winter by looking at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA),” Shouse said. “I love winter, but it just seems like an extended fall.”
Along with looking at the NOAA, Shouse said he looks at air pressure, jet stream flow, wind and humidity to make daily predictions.
Shouse said the biggest cause for a warm season is the La Nina. Occurring about two times every decade, the La Nina is when the Pacific water is colder than normal, which creates high pressure that makes warmer weather and little precipitation; less precipitation means less snow.
“I predict at least two snow days over the winter, but it won’t be like last year,” Shouse said.
KMOV Chief Meteorologist Steve Templeton said St. Louis averages 17.7 inches of snowfall a season, but as of Jan. 10, there have only been two inches of snow.
St. Louis hasn’t broken any snow fall records this winter season, but it has broken temperature records.
“The National Weather Service did some digging and found that through Jan. 7, it is the fifth warmest start to winter on record,” Templeton said. “This winter has averaged a temperature of 41.1 and last winter averaged more than 10 degrees colder at 30.6.”
Thursday, Jan. 5, had a record high of 66 degrees, Templeton said.
Templeton said the Artic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation create warmer weather too. The Artic Oscillation is a circular atmospheric pressure pattern above the northern hemisphere, and this year the cold air hasn’t extended far into North America.
The North Atlantic Oscillation creates a climate pattern based on the atmospheric pressure at sea level.
These large patterns develop and steer the jet streams, meaning they move the direction of cold air or warm air. Templeton said this is positive for St. Louis and the whole nation.
“This has created a very abnormal jet stream that has steered cold air well north of the U.S. and left the U.S. without much in the way of big storms so far this winter,” Templeton said.
Joshua Madison, junior, said it is good that the weather is warm. The weather is good for going to the park and walking outside, Madison said.
Even though the weather is good for outside activities, Madison is missing the snow days.
“We need to use up all the snow days because they are like free days off school,” Madison said.
This year Rockwood built in room for six snow days. The first artic outbreak occurred on Jan. 12, but it wasn’t enough snow to call a snow day.
Warmer temperatures could push back snowy weather, making snowfall more likely in March, Templeton said. It is possible the warm weather will have negative consequences on spring’s ecological state.
“Melting snow usually feeds the soil. Without it, we could have some drought issues,” Templeton said. “If we remain on this pace of above normal temperatures, then you might have plants blooming early and bugs returning earlier in the spring.”
The warm weather is causing future problems, but right now, students are concerned with how the warm weather is affecting skiing and snowboarding.
“It’s bad for ski areas all over the country, everyone is having problems,” Madeline Albert, sophomore, said.
Albert said she has been skiing since second grade and has a passion for skiing. She likes to ski at Hidden Valley, but it isn’t as fun as other big ski resorts that have more space and have real snow, Albert said.
To ski on real snow, Albert goes to Taos, N.M. every spring break with her family. Albert said in Taos there is a shortage of snow as well.
“I like warm weather, but I wish it would snow,” Albert said.