Opinion: A Prediction For The Midterm Elections And Beyond
What can we expect from 2018-2020 politically? To put it simply: the Democrats’ blue wave.
The Republicans are going to lose the midterms according to the polls; the question is how bad their loss will be. The Democrats currently have a nine point lead in the polls for keeping control of the House of Representatives. The aim though is the Senate.
The Democrats are in a tough position when it comes to the Senate – 26 of their Senators are up for reelection (10 of which are in states Trump overwhelmingly won overwhelmingly like Missouri) while Republicans only have nine Senators facing reelection.
Polling website, “FiveThirtyEight,” claims there is an 82.3 percent chance the Republicans will maintain control of the Senate. The polling website claims though that if the Democrats were to gain an 11 point advantage in the polls for the House race, that would be the threshold for them to have the support to take a majority in the Senate. If this unlikely event were to happen and the Democrats were able to “win” the Senate, many liberals’ dreams would come true as they would then have the power to hold presidential impeachment trials.
Whatever way one looks at it, a GOP “victory” appears very unlikely to happen. Currently, they are in the best position they could’ve ever hoped for: a republican Congress, a republican White House, and a republican Supreme Court. It’s highly unlikely for this conservative utopia to be maintained, and they’ll have to give up some governmental control to the democrats. Within Congress, democrats will probably hold onto the Senate, but it’s even more likely they’ll lose control of the House. “FiveThirtyEight” forecasts a whopping 86.4 percent chance we can expect a democratic majority in the house.
Even though the polls have been fair to both the Republicans and Democrats in the possibility of each controlling a chamber of Congress, my opinion is the Democrats might actually win control of the Senate. One would certainly have to be blind to not notice the unprecedented enthusiasm for the 2018 midterms. Even multimillion dollar giants are urging their users and customers to register to vote; according to Snapchat, the company has aided in the registering of 400,000 people by providing a link on their app.
This unprecedented emphasis on the midterm elections is far from normal and isn’t the result of a random surge of civic pride. Whether these companies say it, the hype is clearly very partisan. The reason why a person might hear the term “the most important election of our lifetime,” is because this election is the grand offensive to challenge republican dominance and Trumpism. The results of the 2016 election caught everyone by surprise, and now is the time to make sure no such mistakes happen again. Democrats are working so hard to mobilise, I would find it impossible if this election didn’t come out as a victory for them.
It seems every corner I turn I hear there is a push for people to vote. It almost feels as if this election is being treated as a national referendum. The Democratic Party wants to rally voters to display clear dissatisfaction with the current government. Edison Media Research Incorporated estimates that voter turnout in these elections will hang around 50 percent, becoming a peak record for the last 50 years of midterms.
No matter the exact results for the House or Senate, one thing is clear: Donald Trump is going to lose 2020. Arguably all the passion behind this blue wave comes from his divisive comments and policies. With a long list of incidents such as child detainment at the border and the push to end birth citizenship, a large mass of American voters feels alienated from Trump.
As 2016 goes further and further into the distance, democrats have stopped looking at the results as a mistake and more as a lesson. They refuse to get overconfident, to grow complacent with polls, and are instead doing everything they can to get their voters to the polls.
Thus you have the 2018 midterms, “the most important election of our lifetime.”
Michael Schmitz, senior, is a foreign correspondent for the Messenger. During his time in Israel, he will utilize his background in political analysis...